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Durable carbon removal has to grow from thousands to billions of tonnes within three decades.
The new XPRIZE and BCG report lays out how leading teams plan to get there, and where costs will fall next. The topline is clear: most of the near-term progress will come from execution, not moonshots. Only a small share of the finalists’ projected cost decline depends on future breakthroughs. The bulk comes from scale, modularity, process optimisation, and smart commercial choices, all while managing several very practical external constraints.
The report, authored by BCG and the XPRIZE Carbon Removal team, synthesises submissions from the 20 finalists and independent validations from third parties. It provides a rare, data-rich view of how companies intend to move from kilotonne demonstrations to megatonne projects from 2030 to 2035.
The Cost Levers That Matter Now
Finalist strategies converge on internal levers for cutting cost between kt and mt scale: future technology advancement, scaling, modularity, process optimisation and automation, and alternative revenue. In the aggregate, only a small single-digit share of total projected cost reduction is attributed to future technology, with the majority coming from engineering scale, modularisation, and operational optimisation.
Scaling: Bigger projects and components reduce the balance of plant cost per tonne. The report references the well-known 0.6 rule to explain why a 10x-capacity facility might require only about 4x the footprint, thereby improving unit economics as projects grow.
Modularity: Standardised, repeatable units drive learning curve effects and manufacturing efficiencies. This shows up strongly in containerised systems and repeatable sub-assemblies.
Process Optimisation and Automation: Cutting labour and energy, standardising tasks, and instrumenting processes are widely used across pathways. These are common industrial tools that bring predictable gains when applied with discipline.
Alternative Revenue Streams: Byproducts can offset cost for some pathways, although they introduce operational complexity and require careful carbon accounting to avoid double-counting between product claims and credits.
The implication is simple: the industry can scale rapidly with today’s technology, while continued R&D adds upside. The centre of gravity is now engineering and commercial execution.
The Seven External Factors You Cannot Ignore
Across very different technologies, finalists face a standard set of external risks that shape both cost and growth rate: financing, supply chains, logistics, energy, labour, land, and water. The report highlights how exposure varies by pathway and how teams plan to manage each.
Financing: The cost of capital is a leading driver of the levelised cost. There is no one-size-fits-all structure. Teams mix project debt, leases, and other instruments to match their scaling approach.
Supply Chains: Bespoke components and non-commoditised inputs are high risk. Companies respond with partnerships, pooled demand, and, in some cases, vertical integration.
Logistics: Often small for centralised plants, but material for distributed operations and pathways that cannot readily co-locate with feedstock or application sites. Fleet optimisation and shared infrastructure matter.
Energy: DAC, OAE, and related approaches are energy-intensive, with electricity and heat comprising a large share of OPEX. ERW and biochar exhibit lower overall energy intensity, often in the 10-40% OPEX range, with more of that energy coming from fuel in current configurations. Site selection, efficiency, and flexible operations are key.
Labour: Two challenges recur: building skilled teams for industrial projects and recruiting larger pools of general labour. Automation, training, and standardisation reduce exposure.
Land: Access and partnership management can be complex for land-linked pathways. Co-location strategies and workflow automation help.
Water: Usually a minor constraint, but essential in arid regions or for specific plant designs. Teams adapt designs and siting to manage this exposure.
Where Enhanced Rock Weathering Fits
Enhanced rock weathering leverages abundant minerals and existing farming logistics, giving it a credible path to scale with lower energy intensity than many engineered pathways and with widespread opportunities for replication. The report places ERW within the geochemical solutions group and notes that ERW’s energy costs are generally lower as a share of OPEX than DAC’s and OAE’s, while still requiring strong logistics and land partnerships to manage distributed deployment.
The cost reduction levers for ERW align tightly with the report’s message:
Scale Through Repetition, Not Novelty: Larger quarrying and spreading programmes reduce per tonne costs across materials handling and balance of plant. The report directly calls out ERW providers planning to secure land through farmer networks and to grow towards multi mt operations by scaling rock supply and spreading fleets.
Modular Fieldwork: ERW “numbers up” through standardised plans and seasonal workflows at thousands of fields. The learning curve is real, but it depends on consistent data capture and repeatable processes.
Process Optimisation: Route planning, just-in-time staging, and equipment utilisation lift productivity. The report emphasises industrial optimisation, and ERW is well-suited to apply these basics at scale across a distributed footprint.
Financing That Fits the Asset: Working capital and logistics dominate, so structures that repay on verified delivery are a strong fit. This lines up with the report’s view that financing strategy must match the underlying operational model.
UNDO, the XPRIZE Dataset, and Proof of Progress
UNDO’s XPRIZE demonstration and operational model echo the report’s findings about the sources of scale and cost reduction.
Kilotonne Removal With Empirical MRV: Over the demonstration window, UNDO recorded 1,548 tonnes gross and 1,209 tonnes net CO₂ removed in Ontario, supported by intensive solid and aqueous measurements and a full LCA.
Field Proven Data Systems: UNDO deployed 30 high-spec monitoring sites and used its NEWTON platform and in-tractor logging to trace each tonne from quarry to field to lab, creating an audit trail at the scale required for megatonne deployment.
Real-World Scale Signals: The team achieved a single-month spreading capacity above 10 kt and coordinated thousands of truck movements while maintaining quality control. These are the tangible, repeatable steps that the report says drive down cost.
Commercial Momentum and Financing Fit: Operations have been funded by corporate offtakes and supported by a developing debt facility approach, aligning with the report’s guidance that the cost of capital and financing models are central to levelised costs.
A Visible Cost Trajectory: UNDO’s megatonne model targets an average cost by 2031, driven by supply chain efficiencies and scale. This sits squarely with the report’s emphasis on engineering and commercial levers as the primary drivers of near-term cost decline.
UNDO was also named one of the XPRIZE four global winners, alongside teams spanning rocks, land, ocean, and air pathways, reflecting the report’s point that a portfolio of approaches will be needed globally.
What Buyers and Policymakers Should Do Next
The report’s lessons are practical.
Back Repeatability: Prioritise partners that can run the same playbook site to site, season to season. That is where the learning curve and the cost decline come from.
Match Finance to Operations: For OPEX-heavy, distributed models, debt that repays on verified delivery can unlock scale without inflating cost of capital. For CAPEX-heavy plants, structured project finance and manufacturing capital matter most.
Strengthen the Ecosystem: Invest in supply chain capacity, shared logistics, and workforce training that benefit multiple providers. The report is explicit that scaling any pathway requires a broader ecosystem of suppliers and operators.
Protect Integrity: Where byproducts are sold, ensure accounting prevents double-counting between product claims and carbon credits. Credible MRV and rigorous audits are the baseline.
The Takeaway
Durable CDR is moving from the lab to the field. The near-term job is to build capacity, optimise the basics, and bring down the cost of verified tonnes by doing the work at scale. For ERW, that means more rock, total transparency, and financing that pays on delivery. The XPRIZE and BCG report provides the industry with a clear map of where to focus and how to avoid common pitfalls as we move from science to commercial reality.
Put These Lessons to Work With UNDO
You have just read how the XPRIZE and BCG report points to cost reduction through scale, modularity, and process optimisation. We apply that playbook in enhanced rock weathering, with traceable logistics and conservative MRV on the ground.
